California Apocalypse

[MandysMom]

And now a firefighter has died in the fire caused by pyrotechnics at the gender reveal party in So Cal. Potentially that family could be charged manslaughter.
Velda

[Bethers]

And now a firefighter has died in the fire caused by pyrotechnics at the gender reveal party in So Cal. Potentially that family could be charged manslaughter.
Velda

They should be!

[Cudedog]

Well. . . Here we go again.

To start off, There is absolutely no rain in sight here in Northern California for the foreseeable future - that is, for at least another 7 to 10 days. Zip. Zilch. Nada. The last measurable rain we had here was in May.

Temps here over the next week will continue to hover around 90 degrees +/-.

Yes, we still have smoky skies in my area - this has been true since mid-August. Not so much ashfall at the moment - hope it doesn't start back up. I was mowing my lawn this morning - you can't really see it on the grass, but the mower kicks up clouds of ash as the grass is mowed.

Here is the list of fires still currently burning here in California - some of these fires have been burning since mid-August. The "North Complex", up in the Sierra Foothills, around 35 miles or so from where I live, is one of these.

There are others.



I am just now reading that there is going to be a "wind event" which will trigger a "Red Flag Warning" beginning tomorrow morning (Wednesday, October 14) at 5:00 a.m. through Friday, October 16 at 11:00 a.m.

Winds Wednesday night are predicted to gust to about 30 mph +/- in the area of the North Complex fire (with wind gusts over other actively burning fires as well).

Wind blowing on a fire actively burning in bone-dry brush is never a good thing. Think blow torch.

This from the National Weather Service:

"Critical Fire Weather Conditions Wednesday through Friday
Morning.

Gusty north to east wind develops Wednesday morning in the
Central Valley, Delta, and Coastal Range, spreading into the
northern and eastern foothills and mountains Wednesday evening.
Periods of gusty winds continue into Friday morning. Combination
of low humidity, dry fuels, and gusty winds during this period
will result in critical fire weather conditions over much of
interior Northern California."

This is probably the beginning of our annual wind season here. There is extreme fire danger ("extreme" is not a strong enough word to describe what goes on) here during the season of our annual winds.

The danger ends only when the rains come. Annual rains used to come here around mid-September. Now they don't arrive until late October/early November.

That is, one can only hope the rains are coming.

PG&E (our electric utility) is projected to be turning off electricity to 50,000 customers in my region in the hope of preventing any more fires caused by electric lines being damaged by this wind event (damaged electrical equipment sends sparks into the brush). This shut-off will probably last at least for the duration of the dates given above. Let me repeat: temperatures in the area of this projected shut-off will be in the 90 degree range. This means no ac, no refrigerator, no freezer for 50,000 people.

We can only hope that the fires that are still currently burning do not jump out of their containment, and that new fires do not ignite on our tinder-dry hillsides.

I'll keep everyone posted.

If anyone has any questions, please ask.

Anne

[Cudedog]

Nope about the 90 degree temps mentioned in my previous post. It was cool this morning when I mowed my lawn; later in the afternoon I went outside again and it seemed really hot, so I checked my thermometer.

It read 100 degrees. At this was about 2:30 p.m. Probably got warmer than that, although I didn't go out to look. Hottest part of the day here is generally around 5:00 p.m.

I'm sure ready for cool weather. Hope it eventually gets here.

Anne

[Cudedog]

As Barbie said, it's a good news/bad news kind of day.

The good news:

As Velda said on another thread, it looks like we dodged the bullet on the last wind event - no further major fires got started, those that are still burning were not drastically affected.

Now the bad news:

From tonight (October 19) at 11:00 p.m., it's looking like we are going to have another series of wind events.

1. PG&E (our electric utility company) is contemplating electric shut-offs, again, for upwards of 50,000 customers.

2. Red flag warning from tonight at 11:00 p.m. until October 21 at 8:00 a.m.: (from weather.gov, the U. S. Government National Weather Service web site):
"...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Late Tonight Through
Early Wednesday Morning with Gusty Winds and Low Humidity..."

3. Fire Weather Watch in effect from October 21 (Wednesday), 10:00 PM PDT until October 23, (Friday) 05:00 PM PDT

So it looks like Californians will be under critical fire weather conditions from tonight until Friday, although it looks like the temperatures are finally trending down. High near 70 on Saturday, high near 67 on Sunday. Cooler temps are always good during critical fire weather.

Now for the REALLY bad news:

It is looking more and more likely that northern California will not receive any measurable rain for the entire month of October. I'm looking at the weather outlook for my area all the way up to to October 26. Not a drop in sight. "Sunny and warm" is the forecast for October 26, at least at the moment.

October is the month our annual rains have always begun in the past - usually just light rains during the month, but we can also have a soaker in October. Maybe not this year. . . And just because the temps are trending down, doesn't mean we still can't have a few more 100 degree days.

Even taking wildfire out of the picture, this is very, very worrisome. Our annual rains are ultimately where all of California's water comes from - for industry, farming, drinking, household use, the works. You name it.

No rain = no water.

Man, I hope I am majorly wrong on this, and that things drastically change before the end of the month.

But I'm starting to think about the "D" word here.

Things are so dry here that even a totally mundane thing like, maybe, a steel rim from a flat tire scraping along the pavement throwing sparks has a powerful potential to start a major conflagration.

Think I'm exaggerating?

No. Not so much.

That's how the Carr fire started near Redding a couple of years ago (2018): 229,651 acres burned, at a cost of $1.659 billion. 7 fatalities, including a grandmother and her two grandchildren - the grandmother did not have a vehicle, so was unable to evacuate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carr_Fire

"Coincidental to the name of the incident, the fire was started when a flat tire on a vehicle caused the wheel's rim to scrape against the asphalt, creating sparks that set off the fire."

Please pray for rain. I know I am.

Thanks.

Anne

[JudyJB]

This is one map I check often. I shows drought throughout the U.S.-- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Here is the map specifically for California -- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/current/current_ca_trd.pdf

I check these maps fairly often, and the overall U.S. map is much worse than is usual, especially for this time of year. As you can see, the problem is widespread beyond California. Note that the California map shows the heaviest drought in the northern central valley and in Oregon where the fires were last month.

Right now, I am in Wahweap Campground, overlooking Lake Powell, near Page, AZ, and it looks very sad. I thought the water level was low last time I was here about three years ago, but it is worse now. Part of my problem is that I was here in about 1977 when it was completely full, so I remember what it used to be. Now it is down 100' below that level and 20' below the level from last year at this time. Very sad.

[BarbaraRose]

Driving up thru northern California and southern Oregon, everything was so brown and bone dry. The reservoirs were also very low up there. I sure hope they get a lot of rain and snow this winter!

[Bethers]

Arizona is also in a drought.. no monsoon season this year. There was a fire in the mountains near me over the weekend. It's at 80 percent containment as of this afternoon. The mountains I can see from here are the Dragoons and 130 acres of them burned. They say human caused, but haven't given it more info than that yet. There are two other fires going on now in Arizona that I'm aware of. Probably others, too. While California is still, hopefully, going to be having rain, Arizona totally missed any during the normal season for it's rain. I'm hoping we'll see some decent rains this winter.

[Cudedog]

This is one map I check often. I shows drought throughout the U.S.-- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Here is the map specifically for California -- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/current/current_ca_trd.pdf

Thanks for the drought maps, Judy. That is a really useful resource. I was not aware of them, and will keep them in mind. According to the maps my entire county, and many of the counties in the northern part of the state from near Sacramento all the way to the Oregon border, are in the "Extreme Drought" category. Again, there is no rain in sight for interior northern California.

Beth, I wasn't aware that Arizona was in severe drought as well. As are parts of Oregon and Washington state.

Barbie, you certainly got a front-row seat of the terribly dry conditions we have here on your trip.

California has made it through several days-long "wind events" over the last two weeks or so, we are all thankful that no new major fires have ignited.

But now there is tomorrow, Sunday October 25, with the news not looking so good:

"The most extreme fire danger of 2020 has California on high alert, as severe winds that could reach 70 mph in some places are expected to create dangerous conditions from the northern Sacramento Valley and along the Sierra foothills, to the Bay Area and Los Angeles."
https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article246688367.html#storylink=cpy

This is really is extreme - the distance from Redding (the northernmost major city in the Sacramento Valley) to Los Angeles is a distance of almost 550 miles.

Also, people living in the Berkeley hills (San Francisco Bay Area) are being encouraged to leave their homes in advance of this wind event, due to the potential of extreme fires in that area.

"Berkeley encourages hills residents to leave area ahead of Sunday's wind event"
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Berkeley-hills-residents-wind-event-fire-risk-15672123.php

"On Friday evening, Pacific Gas and Electric announced a wide-ranging Public Safety Power Shutoff warning that could affect as many as 38 counties, including the entire Bay Area, except for the county of San Francisco. More than 450,000 customers could lose power in an attempt to prevent wildfires."
https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Biggest-wind-event-of-the-year-forecast-to-hit-15670248.php

There is always the chance that predictions can be inexact. Here's hoping that the predicted winds are not as severe as forecasters think they might be. We are all praying that we have no more fires here, major or minor.

Anne

[snowball]

that drought is wide spread throughout the west... we haven't had the normal rains in Idaho WY or Utah this summer at all... not aware of the amount of snow in those states this past winter...
it's really very dry
sheila

[JudyJB]

Got a fairly decent half an hour of rain here in Grand Canyon. It is a little late and cold for grass and other browse to grow for the animals, but maybe it will help. It looks like several parts of northern and central Arizona are getting rain or snow tonight. Not much forecast in the future, however.

[MandysMom]

We only had maximum gust of 18 mph here Sunday. Humidity staying in 20% range. Really need rain.
Velda

[Cudedog]

Unfortunately, there is a new major fire now burning in California. This new one is in Southern California.

Barbie, is this one anywhere near you?

"LOS ANGELES (AP) — A fast-moving wildfire forced evacuation orders for 60,000 people in Southern California on Monday as powerful winds across the state prompted power to be cut to hundreds of thousands to prevent utility equipment from sparking new blazes."

"About 355,000 power customers — estimated at about 1 million people — were in the dark in the northern part of the state as officials issued warnings for what could be the strongest winds in California this year."

https://apnews.com/article/wildfires-california-orange-county-65f75b663039bde3d1bae99dae42c8ad

60,000 is a tremendous number of people needing to evacuate due to fire. This may be the largest evacuation number I have heard of. With the pandemic raging, these people have few options of where to go.

It has truly been a terrible fire year here in California - winds are still blowing strong here at my house. Guesstimate 20 mph +/-. Wind speeds are generally higher in the Sierra Foothills - where many of the fires ignite in my part of the state.

And the hurricanes just keep coming.

Martha, I'm hoping this latest hurricane misses you by a wide margin.

Anne

[BarbaraRose]

I hadn't heard about that fire but it is two mountain ranges away from me and along the coast south of La. It is a highly populated area between the ocean and the mountains. Catherine lives in that area. I hope she is ok!

Just very high winds here.

[BarbaraRose]

I hadn't heard about that fire but it is two mountain ranges away from me and along the coast south of La. It is a highly populated area between the ocean and the mountains. Catherine lives in that area. I hope she is ok!

Just very high winds here.