California Fires

[Cudedog]

I know that Beth prefers to keep "politics" off this board, but the comments made by a "prominent politician" (I'll leave it at that - if you want more information, do a Google search) regarding the cause of the current California wildfires deserves, I think, a brief comment. I hope that Beth will let this post stand, as it includes, I think, important information.

What most people likely do not understand (particularly those who live in parts of the US currently enduring massive amounts of rainfall, with concurrent flooding) is that California has what is generally referred to as a "Mediterranean climate".

In addition to the past several years of moderate to severe drought, Northern California generally only receives rain these days from late October to early November, with the rains ending mid to late March.

Four or five months of "rainy season". Thus seven or eight months of "dry season".

I have lived in this area for around forty (40) years, when I first moved here the first frost (and the first rains) came in mid-September, rains ended mid to late April. These days (and for the last few years), the first frost and first rains don't come until the end of October to early November, and generally end mid to late March.

Leaving politics out of it, this is, obviously, some kind of "change", that I have personally experienced over the forty (40) years I have lived in this area of California. Again, leaving politics out of it, what kind of "change" this might be I leave to your Google searching.

So, if California has four or five months of rainy season, this leaves seven or eight months of "dry season" - which maybe doesn't sound so bad. However, with the seven or eight months of no rain, add to this equation the fact that temperatures can be - and very often are - extremely hot, you get extreme drying of vegetation.

And by "extremely hot" I mean average temperatures of above 100 (one-hundred) degrees, for weeks on end. This summer, so far, the highest temperature at my house (I keep a thermometer in an outside location where it is always in the shade, and never in the sun) was as high as 112 (one hundred twelve) degrees. This temp continued at around 110 (one hundred ten) degrees for several days (again, temps have remained at or near 100 degrees here for weeks on end).

I was in the foothills near where I live last week. Walking through a pasture that in the past generally stayed green all summer, the grass is now dead, brown and sere. Walking through this dead pasture grass, each step made an audible "crunch".

In conditions this dry, even a spark from, maybe, a dragging chain behind a vehicle throwing up sparks as the vehicle goes down the road can initiate a major conflagration (the current Carr Fire, the second largest fire now burning, was caused by a flat tire on a trailer, when the trailer rim sent sparks into vegetation at the side of the road).

Even walking through a pasture, and maybe accidentally kicking a rock, with it maybe hitting another rock nearby, thus causing a brief spark, could potentially result in this same outcome.

Let me tell you, I was freaked out on my walk, fearing just this kind of accidental outcome. I couldn't wait to get back to my car.

In view of the above, again my own personal observation and experience, please do your own research regarding the cause of the current, and terrible, wildfires ongoing in California. Don't take a politician's word for it, even the word from a "prominent politician".

Do your own research. Talk to the people who are living it.

A final note:

Over my 40 (forty) years of residence here, always - always - the worst wildfires have always come in October, at the end of the dry season, just before the rains came. In many instances, these October fires were met with the first of the rains, which helped to quench these fires.

Ladies, it is only August, and California is in the midst of perhaps it's worst fire season in history.

In August, of course, in California, there is no rain in sight.

And October is yet to come.

Anne

[BarbaraRose]

I agree, The weather is getting more extreme everywhere. More torrential rains and flooding, more and longer droughts, more severe tornadoes and hurricanes, more and longer heat waves, etc. And it is changing quickly, not over centuries but decades and years. I just read that the ocean surface temperature off southern California is the highest ever recorded. Very concerning to say the least.

[Bethers]

No argument here.

[Bethers]

Anne, here you go:
Today, August 5, 2018. Trump tweeted a technically incorrect and very confusing commentary about the ongoing California Fires (below). Because his position is not well-informed and is not based on credible facts or science, I would like to rebut the points in his tweet with some specific observations. Here is my summation. --Dr K.

--> There is *no shortage of water* to fight fires. The water flowing in California Rivers is low, but that water is *not being wasted* AND California rivers are *not* being "diverted" into the Pacific. [Source: USGS hydrographic data] The notion that the water is not being "properly utilized" used (his words) to fight this fire is very odd. USFS policy and fire fighting in general aim to protect life and loss, if possible.

--> In the past, many California rivers used to flow into the ocean, but after settlement and the great degree of development, only a fraction of that river water reaches the sea today. This is because a lot of river water is diverted to irrigate farmlands and serve the cities --! [Source for more about this: read Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner! Or watch the related film "Chinatown" --]

--> Ocean water is used to fight fires in coastal areas. Helicopters dip a huge bucket into the ocean, fly over the fire and dump the bucket over the fire area to douse flames. There are other fire fighting strategies, like spraying retardant from airplanes and manually creating fire breaks. [Source: LA Times, USFS practices, US Air Force]

--> California's forests and rangelands are *not* dry and burning because of the state's water policies. California's forests are primarily burning because of a combination of confounding variables that are enhancing each other and contributing to enhance the fire burn area. The primary variables of this the calamity include:

-->--> The persistent, severe drought (dry conditions) and the current weather, extreme temperatures and low precipitation, are key variables in forecasting a fire season. Weather has become worse over the short-term (decades) because of human-caused hydroclimatic change. The number of fires has significantly increased in the US West since the 60's [Source: NOAA, NASA data, USDA]

-->-->The forest health has been declining for decades. The resilience of the climate-stressed forest has also been weakened by invasive species and bark beetle infestations all throughout the American West. [Source: USFS data, many academic papers, including tree-ring scientists and foresters]

-->--> Because long-term forest and rangeland management policy suppressed fires for many years, overgrowth and dead brush accumulating in the understory have created "tinder box" conditions. The large amount of "dead and down" helps the fire spread. [Source: Hot Shots fire fighters & US Forest Management practices]

-->--> High winds during the fire can cause fires to spread quickly. Tree clearing and prescribed burning can help, but these are costly and the newer expensive strategies are not often deployed (note USFS, BLM budgets are low!). These management strategies are often localized -- too little, too late -- resulting in a highly severe, profoundly "perfect fire storm" because... of these reasons above. [Source: Recent Forbes article about the fire tornado that we posted!]

IMHO: I am not surprised at the lack of real content in the tweet. I am very concerned at the disjointed misinformation conveyed. Moreover, the spin and lack of evidence-based observation bothers me. I have to question Trump's goals. I see an undercurrent of corrupt opportunism in his comments about water. Water is a basic necessity and a human right. I see a trend in corporate aims to privatize water resources, control water supplies, and dominate quality and quantity issues by deregulating protections and existing environmental laws. Who profits? I have to ask.

-- I am a PhD geoscientist and an Associate Professor at University of Utah. These are my own opinions, here. This fall I teach a seminar called "Water In Utah" and we read "Cadillac Desert" !! I also teach Geomorphology in the fall, every year. Geomorphology Rules is one of my outreach and community endeavours. Maybe one day I will be a celebrity geomorphologist, so you are welcome to participate in this page. No swearing, though or you will be filtered like a Kool Menthos ciggie (eeew). Like Gravity, I like the Fall and I will not always remain politically neutral, but I will tell you IMHO. Otherwise, facts are full-frontal. --Dr K

Dr Kathleen Nicoll

[Cudedog]

Beth.

Dr. K says it so much better than I.

I really don't know what to say.

Except: Thank You.

And thank you. And thank you.

Anne

[SoCalGalcas]

Ah, Beth, Annie’s first post was excellent on our conditions here in California. It was non-political and factual.

Now you have introduced politics into this horrible fire situation. That is not right on this forum.

We have all peoples here and we get along because we do not politise on this forum. I respect each and everyone’s opinion. Although I do not always agree.

Please, no more comments on Trumps tweets by supposedly non-byist scientists.

LYN

[Irmi]

Lyn, I sent you a PM.

[Bethers]

Sorry Lyn, I stand by my post by a legitimate scientist addressing the cause of the fires. If the reason she felt the need to do so was because of the Presidents post, sobeit it. I can't understand how climate change is political or why it became political. To me it's simply a fact.

[monik7]

Sorry Lyn, I stand by my post by a legitimate scientist addressing the cause of the fires. If the reason she felt the need to do so was because of the Presidents post, done it. I can't understand how climate change is political or why it became political. To me it's simply a fact.

I agree Beth. Climate change shouldn’t be political but it’s very clear how it’s being made that. Starving polar bears, species going extinct every day, Antarctica breaking up into icebergs melting in the ocean and record-breaking fires among a multitude of other disastrous changes occurring as a result of climate change should be everyone’s worry and concern.
Sandi

[SoCalGalcas]

Beth, discussing climate change is not political. What I am objecting to is quoting a scientist who obviously dislikes Trump and gets in her digs at him under the guise of climate change. That is political. Lyn

[havingfunnow]

I ran across this video this morning of one possible way to address forest fires -- they're trying it in Spain, also a mediterranean climate, and the early results are good:

https://www.facebook.com/BusinessInside ... 162124280/

It wouldn't address climate change or the winds, but clearing out a lot of the understory growth would help. Also, you could probably support the program with the sale of goat milk!

[JudyJB]

They used to use sheep and goats on lawns of grand mansions before we had mechanical lawn mowers, but I am imagining chasing all those goats to catch them to milk them!!

[avalen]

Just marking read

[havingfunnow]

Well, you'd need Border Collies, Judy!

[Redetotry]

Judy you and Havingfunnow could start a business renting out goats, sheep and Border Collies. Just remember to buy male goats

Seriously though it is a good idea. There are several places now where you can rent goats to clear land.