Fire just north of Anne

[OregonLuvr]

Glad to hear that Sandi. I wasnt sure where she was exactly. Thanks. Hope she goes camping LOL

[MandysMom]

We were socked in agan with the smoke from Paradise Camp Fire all day. National weather service map of air quality, with worst being brown, our area is withn a brown blob, thus hazardous for anyone. So we stayed in all day, not even going out to the big locked mailbox. This way through at least Monday ! Hope air improves for all of us in CA.
Velda

[Cudedog]

Thanks to each and every one of you who have offered your support, and offered me a place to stay. It is appreciated more than you know, and actually brought a bit of misting to my eyes. You ladies are the BEST.

The Camp Fire of Paradise, Ca. is now officially the worst California fire in state history (and California has quite a list of them).

Update (from the CalFire Website and also from Yubanet): http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/admin8327985/cdf/images/incidentfile2277_4173.pdf)

as of 7:10 p.m., 11/10/18:

Current size: 114,833 acres [nearly 10,000 additional acres burned overnight]

Containment: 25%

Expected full containment: 11/30/18 (nearly 3 weeks from now!). My Note: "Containment" does not mean that the fire is fully put out, it only means that the fire is fully surrounded by firefighters and fire breaks, thus it is "contained". Even when a fire is fully "contained" the interior of the "contained" area can still be quite actively burning.

Civilian fatalities: 23

Structures still threatened: 15,000 (fifteen thousand)

Commercial buildings destroyed: 260

Single residences destroyed: 6,453 (six-thousand, four hundred fifty-three).

Personnel [on the fire]: 4,050

Engines: 512

Water Tenders: 33

Helicopters: 23

Hand Crews: 85

Dozers: 79

All five shelters in the immediate area of the fire are filled to capacity. A shelter has been opened at the Yuba-Sutter Fairgrounds, which is a few miles from me, but at least 50 miles from Paradise. So people from the fire area are needing to travel quite a distance to find shelter.

Winds here at my house are currently light, although the CalFire page reports that winds were heavy in the fire area overnight. Smoke at my house, including smoke overcast, has lifted and I can see the blue sky, at least for the moment. Heavy smoke smell has dissipated.

I am not concerned about my safety (other than possible health-related issues of smoke and ash fall) at this time, and here is why:

The town of Paradise is in the foothills (it is not a valley town) surrounded on all sides by wildlands: think bone-dry forest and brush uninterrupted for many many miles (again, no appreciable rain since April, temps for the summer have mostly been north of 100 degrees).

The cities of both Chico and Oroville, although valley towns (for the most part) also have suburbs that are in, or abut to, foothill wildlands (again, dry brush, trees, grass etc.). This puts them both at serious risk for wildfire.

If a wildlands fire gets a foothold in a subdivision (that abuts wildlands), with high winds (which we always have in the autumn - it is a seasonal thing here) a fire can extremely rapidly "leapfrog" from house to house to house, and thus make rapid inroads into more populated areas of a city, often in a matter of minutes.

Which is why people die trying to escape such fires - they have had no warning, and have no time to get out.

This is precisely what happened in the terrible Sonoma fire of last year (2017), and now has happened on the town of Paradise (only on a much worse scale than Sonoma). The city of Sonoma also abuts foothill wildlands.

Especially when a fire like this begins at night, or early morning, when people are sleeping.

Think "fire tornado". I'm sure you have seen video. They are real.

I live in the Central Valley. No part of my immediate area abuts the foothills, or any kind of wildlands. My general area is very agricultural, with farms (rice, fruit, nuts, row crops) all around. It would be difficult (but probably not impossible, if conditions were right) for a fire to get started close to me, but pretty unlikely. Why? Because there is nothing to burn, no dry brush and trees for it to get started in the first place, and then nothing for a fire to get a good hold. It's just irrigated farmland, all around.

Yes, it would probably be good for me to get away from the smoke and ashfall, very unhealthy for me and for Joe.

However, I know what it is to be evacuated from my home - I was evacuated for three days when the Oroville dam emergency spillway failed, and threatened to send a wall of water 30 feet high down the Feather River into downstream communities. I live about 1/2 to 3/4 miles from the Feather River. I was blessed to be able to stay with friends in the San Francisco Bay area, but it still was no picnic.

Not fun at all.

The other problem being of where to go (THANK YOU to all of you brave ladies that have offered me and Joe accommodation!!!). The smoke from this fire (and, to a lesser extent, the ashfall) extends for hundreds of miles all around. Velda has smoke at her house, she is about 100 miles from the fire. My son, who lives south of San Francisco (150 - 200 miles) has had an "air quality alert" due to this fire.

So I would need to drive several hundred miles to escape from it, which in itself an effort. Plus, the fire is expected to burn for at least for the next three weeks (see "Expected full containment", above) which means that there will continue to be smoke and ashfall at least until then, for the next three weeks (rain would definitely help, unfortunately no rain in the forecast)

I'm just more comfortable at home. As they say, "Fish and house guests begin to stink after three days" Three weeks would definitely be pushing it.

But, again, thanks to all of you from the bottom of my heart.

Anne

[Rufflesgurl]

Anne thanks for the fire updates. So glad you are safe and feel comfortable in your home. Here in Mountain House this morning we have bright blue clear sky, a little cool but it still smells of smoke. We were out for just a little while earlier. The last few days we didn't see the sun because of the smokey sky.

Maybe you should get your trailer and head out? Aren't you about to move?

Linda

[OregonLuvr]

Thanks Anne for the update. I googled the vicinity you live in and how far from the fires and I feel confident now you are safe. Some of the fires up here this summer were only 10-12 miles from me but again I remained safe as the same situation as you with agriculture and nothing to burn close to me. I am surrounded by mountains. Live at the bottom of the Siskiyou Pass so lots of fire fodder available for sure. I live down in the valley so the smoke just settles in and goes nowhere. We did suffer with smoke from about 8 fires in OR and CA for about 2 months tho but no flames so that is good. You are so right with containment....we still have fires burning in a couple of locations but they are "contained". Just heard on the news there is a new fire about 5 miles north of Brookings on the coast (they had BAD fire last year too) but no other info as of yet. We so need RAIN/SNOW bring it on Mother Nature. I promise not to complain (too much).

[Bethers]

Thanks, Anne, for the update. I'm still worried because I know what that smoke would do to me. But not as worried about the fire itself getting to you. That said, if you can check in regularly. I don't want to be a pest, but I, and others here, are concerned. And if you need anything... Anything at all, please let us know.

[monik7]

Glad you’re safe Anne. Things sure cleared up in my area overnight. Clear blue sky and a slight breeze this morning and currently 74 on my deck at noon. I hope the wind doesn’t increase which is what they were predicting last night.
Sandi

[MandysMom]

Still murky brown sky here. Air quality reports show us in brown highest hazard category of air from smoke. It's how our valley works, funneling pollution into the "bowl" we live in. Just staying in, double air filters and tight house to protect us. Glad you are ok Anne and Joe.
Velda

[Cudedog]

Thanks, Anne, for the update. I'm still worried because I know what that smoke would do to me. But not as worried about the fire itself getting to you. That said, if you can check in regularly. I don't want to be a pest, but I, and others here, are concerned. And if you need anything... Anything at all, please let us know.

Thanks for your concern, Beth. I will try to check in more regularly - but there hasn't been much official news since this morning.

However, I just received an email from a friend that the fire is on the move tonight towards the tiny town of Cherokee (I have several friends sho live there, and they have all now evacuated). Also, I understand that the town of Berry Creek is now at risk. I know this won't mean too much to members who live outside of California, but this is just to let everyone know the fire is still on the move.

Winds were moderate today at my house; I understand that they were more active in the fire area. Not good.

That's all I know at the moment.

Thanks.

Anne

[MandysMom]

The AQI, air quality index, is how pollution is rated based on particulate matter. The absolute top of the AQI scale is 500. Today they said Roseville reached 498. Highest ever recorded in the region. Sure glad I stayed indoors. Fire stations are handing out N-95 respirator masks. And death toll now up to at least 29, with over 200 still missing. That equals the most ever killed in a wildland fire, the last being 29 in the Griffith Park fire of 1945. So most destructive fire ever with over 6700 homes and businesses destroyed and now probably most deadly ever. And today was only 3 days since it began near Camp Road during a wind event of 60 mph winds. Less than 1/2 inch rain in 220 days. Fire on the move on south and north east borders. Very bad week for California.
Velda feeling sad in Roseville CA

[BirdbyBird]

Not saying much here because these fires are so much out of my knowledge or experience base.....They are so devastating in their destruction and their speed and size so overwhelming. But I am here wishing rain or snow to come down and safety.

[Cudedog]

Error post deleted.

[OregonLuvr]

Most of the western states are sending more firefighters to spell the ones already exhausted. AUSTRALIA is sending 50 today and 75 tomorrow. YAY for "down under".

I am fearful for the 200+ missing people. I am sure not all of them are deceased but I am sure the count is going to go up sadly.

[Cudedog]

Fire Update November 12, 2018 at 7:18 a.m.

The Camp Fire of Paradise, Ca. is now officially the worst California fire in state history (and California has quite a list of them), in terms of destruction. At 29 fatalities, the Camp Fire now equals the record number of fatalities of any California fire. It is possible for this number to increase, as inspectors are able to get into, and to assess, the burned area.

As Velda mentioned (thank you, Velda!), it has now been 210 days since our area of Northern California has received at least 1/2 inch of rain, with 100 plus degree temps during much of that time.

I have been trying to think of an analogy to try to illustrate how extremely dried out our wildlands are here, and why things burn so quickly, and I have come up with this:

Imagine your fresh-cut Christmas Tree (apologies for those of you who do not celebrate Christmas) standing in your living room from maybe after Thanksgiving, on through the summer - imagine how dried-out, dangerous and flammable it would be after many months of just standing there. It would take just a tiny spark - maybe even just a spark from ambient static electricity - to send this tree into such flame that it would consume your house in a matter of minutes.

Now image a hillside, or a mountain, or maybe a mountain range - or maybe even an entire region - covered by such trees. Then think of a spark, maybe from just one falling rock hitting another. Or a hawk causing a short by landing on power lines, causing sparks to fall into the dry brush below (the hawk incident is a verified incident). Thus a massive wildfire begins.

One begins to get the picture.

Update (from the CalFire Website and also from Yubanet website).

Current Size (acres): 128,798 [My Note: up nearly 14,000 additional acres overnight]

Percent Contained: 25%

Estimate of Containment: Nov. 30, 2018 [My Note: Again, nearly three weeks from now. Again, "Containment" does not mean that the fire is fully put out, it only means that the fire is fully surrounded by firefighters and fire breaks, thus it is "contained". Even when a fire is fully "contained" the interior of the "contained" area can still be quite actively burning. Sometimes for many weeks. New: If a major wind event then occurs over a "contained" area, it is possible for the fire to escape containment and again spread]

Personnel: 4,555 [My Note: up nearly 500 additional personnel from yesterday - the number of personnel fighting this fire is about the size of many small towns across the United States. The logistics of feeding/housing/water/showering etc. this number of people is staggering. Keep in mind that fighting fire is a very dirty business]

Structures Destroyed: 6,713 [estimate]

Expected full containment: 11/30/18 [nearly 3 weeks from now!]

Civilian fatalities: 29 [My Note: Up six from yesterday. More fatalities are possible, as fire crews are finally able to get into the burned area to do inspections. Immediately after a fire, and sometimes for many days afterward, it is unsafe to enter a burned-over area due to remaining fire heat, still-smoldering structures, toxic smoke from burned homes, downed power lines, flame-venting broken gas lines, etc.]

Structures still threatened: 15,000 [fifteen thousand - no available update from yesterday]

Commercial buildings destroyed: 260 [no available update from yesterday]

Single residences destroyed: 6,453 [six-thousand, four hundred fifty-three - no change from yesterday]

Engines: 512 [no available update from yesterday]

Water Tenders: 33 [no available update from yesterday]

Helicopters: 23 [no available update from yesterday]

Hand Crews: 85 [no available update from yesterday]

Dozers: 79 [no available update from yesterday]

Winds here at my house are currently calm, although it was windy here overnight. The heavy smoke overcast has returned to my area, looking outside this morning it is darker than it should be at this time of day (almost like before a major rainstorm), with visible smoke hanging in the air. Visibility probably less than 1/4 mile, due to the hanging smoke. Smell of smoke quite strong.

The map on the YubaNet.com website shows that the fire has now jumped over the upper reaches of Lake Oroville, which gives it a clear path towards the city of Oroville (a city of some size, just below Oroville Dam).

https://yubanet.com/Fires/camp/

Thankfully, the winds are predicted to diminish, so Oroville does not appear to be in any immediate danger.

However, according to a map on this page (you will need to scroll down to the map, then "push" the map around so that is shows the fire area)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article216106390.html

This map has tools that allows one to measure distances from the fire, this map suggests that the fire is currently burning only about 8 (eight) miles north of Oroville.

Unfortunately, the map on YubaNet also shows the town of Cherokee (that I mentioned in my post yesterday) to now be under the flames. I have many friends there, and have gone there to visit quite often. I hope this map is incorrect. I did hear from one of my friends via email that everyone was out (meaning evacuated) and safe.

If the homes of my friends have burned, when it is safe to do so (and when the roads in the area are again open, currently most are closed due to the fire) I shall go up there and do what I can to help, as little as it might be.

Wildfire is a truly dreadful thing. For those of us who live here, particularly those who live (or have lived, as I have) in a beautiful rural wildlands area, the constant - and real - threat of summer wildfire is never far from our thoughts.

Thank you.

Anne

[Colliemom]

Thanks for the updates Anne. Glad to know you are in a more agriculture type area that won’t burn, although stray embers could set structures on fire. I understand well the situation with wildfires as we have areas here in northern Michigan prone to same. The county to my south and also some to southeast as well as some areas of the U.P. contain many acres of jackpine forests. Those trees need fire to open their cones and release seeds to allow new trees to grow. They are also home to the endangered Kirkland Warbler who use the smaller low growth trees to nest. In past years,before people started really coming up north and building in rose forests and around lakes within them, it was common practice for officials to do “controlled burns” in those pines to regenerate new trees and establish habitat for the birds, plus clear out the undergrowth and dead stuff. Needless to say, since people started moving in, and knowing that “controlled burns” can occasionally get out of control, people burning when they shouldn’t, a spark caused by things such as you said or even by mom nature, there have Been wildfires which have destroyed homes and properties. Granted, not to a grand scale mind you, but none the less, maybe some outbuildings and a couple of ocassions, about 80 homes. Controlled burns aren’t done much these days as logging the trees and replanting with seedlings grown from seeds harvested from cones is more the norm now. There are still some wildfires each year, but have been confined to small acreages. The Michigan National Guard operates Camp Grayling here which is the largest military training facility of it’s kind in the country and the Range 40 complex as the Air to Ground Range is called, is about 7 miles or so from me. Our prime fire season is usually in spring after snow melts till things green up, that’s when it’s really dry. Well, this summer we had drought conditions and of course the military needs to practice regardless. They set off a fire on the range which burned around 1,000 acres. We got smoked out here and did have some ash coming down for awhile. They said it was a controlled burn, but the joke always is that an accidental fire becomes a controlled burn. It’s not unusual to have Range fires back there. The weather Channel was explaining some of the science behind wildfires and how they create their own weather within themselves, which is why you are seeing winds different than those within the fire areas. I like you am in an area where fires sren’t very comon due to the fact we have different forest makeup here. But in spring when it’s dry, grasses and leaves are susceptible. It’s wise to practice what is called “fire safe”, keeping leaves and other debris at least 50 feet from your buildings to keep a fire from spreading along the ground to your house or whatever. But for now, we have a blanket of snow, so no worries.