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MandysMom wrote:Thinking about you Anne!
Velda

Thanks, Velda.

I am kinda in a stew. It is pouring rain here at my house just now (!), with a LOT more on the way over the next few days.

I originally "self-evacuated" when I first heard that water "might" "begin to be released" over the emergency spillway. Why? Because the "emergency spillway" (now conveniently re-named the "auxiliary spillway") was just a. . . hillside (no concrete) from which (get this) they were in process of removing all of the ground cover down to bare dirt so that "trees and bushes would not wash down into the river".

Er. . . this made no sense to me.

1. "released" implies control. There is no control over the water when it begins to flow over the emergency. . . [cough] I mean the "auxiliary" spillway. This "spillway" is comprised of a 30-foot-tall lip of concrete at the top of a hill. When the lake gets full enough - as it did - water begins to flow over this lip, like it or not. Picture a bowl of water. Keep pouring water into the bowl and watch what happens. You get the idea.

2. All of the vegetation that might have "greased the way" for the water coming over this "spillway" was removed (you can see this in the videos). Now, imagine what happens if you go out into the back yard with your garden hose, put your finger on the end, and spray your grass at as high a pressure as you can manage (this would probably be somewhere in the area of 10 cfm - 10 cubic feet per minute). What happens? Not much. The water just rolls off the grass. Now take this same garden hose, with this same method, and spray an empty patch of dirt, and watch how fast the water begins to dig a hole. At only 10 cfm.

The water flow over the emergency, I mean the auxiliary spillway, was 12,000 cubic feet per second. MAGNITUDES greater than the garden hose example. Small wonder that this bare, dirt, hillside eroded. BIG surprise that! [not]

When it was announced that the water "might" come over the auxiliary spillway, armed with what I know about water and erosion, I left. I went to the San Francisco area and stayed with friends. The next morning (after I had left) water began to come over this emergency/auxiliary spillway - even though, as late as the day before, they were predicting that it would not.

This flowed all day (seemingly) without problem, all the while DWR (California Department of Water Resources) sending out regular bulletins that "everything was working as it was designed to work, no problems, no worries".

So, I thought (since I am a glass half-empty kind of person, rather than a glass half-full kind of person) I would just go back home (after being gone for about two days). So I'm thinking (sometimes it doesn't pay to think, one should just go with their gut) what the hell do I know? If DWR says things are fine, then they are fine, right? RIGHT???

So I loaded up my van, and drove the two hours home. When I got home I was pretty beat, threw all of my laundry into the washing machine, and stuck dinner in the oven. While dinner was cooking, I unloaded my van. I wasn't even going to turn on tv, I mean I had the straight scoop, right?? But I did anyway - I dialed up my Roku box to the Weather Underground channel. There found a clickable "flood notice" warning. Ho-hum. This notice had been on this website for more than a week, so I decided not to even click on it, and just go to bed.

Clicked on it anyway: "Imminent partial dam failure expected within the next 45 minutes. Evacuate Immediately. This is NOT a drill. This is NOT a drill. This is NOT a drill". So much for advance warning!

Did this get my attention? Well, yes and no. I was completely exhausted, this didn't seem real, I was beginning to feel a bit shocked by the whole adventure and I wondered if it was a hoax. So I called my friend (whose home I had just left) in the Bay Area to try to get a grip on [un]reality. She said to get packed, and that she would go online and see what was what. She, too, thought it might be a hoax.

I started throwing everything that I had just unpacked back into the van as fast as I could. Didn't take long. Families all up and down my block were outside throwing stuff in their cars just as fast as they could. Just as I was sitting down on the couch to take a breath, my friend called back: "Get the Hell out NOW!!" It didn't take any further encouragement. I walked out my front door, keys in hand, started my van and drove away. Everyone else on my block was still packing - it was a bit of a blessing that I had already self-evacuated once already - so I didn't need to sort and choose what (and what not) to bring.

I drove west out of town, which took about 15 minutes, instead of the usual 5, until I came to my favorite turn-off and turned south. I beat the horrible traffic and terrible congestion (that I later saw on tv) that probably happened only a few minutes later, had I not gone when my friend called. I had a few "iffy" spots to get over - namely, the Sutter Bypass and Knights Landing - but since I had passed this way just a little more than an hour before, I felt confident that they would be safe. They were fine.

After two more days at my friend's house (THANKYOUTHANKYOUTHANKYOU J & S!!!) the "mandatory" evacuation was lifted, but a "provisional" evacuation still remains in place. I interpret this to mean "Go home and get your stuff together, remain vigilant, and be ready to leave again on a moment's notice."

Which I am doing. I have a friend of a friend (is this how rumors get started?) that says someone close works for DWR. Allegedly, the word on the street from this person is that if the level of the Feather River at Yuba City reaches about 70 - 75 feet (flood stage is 80 feet) or if water begins to again flow over the emergency/auxiliary spillway at Oroville dam. . . to just leave, and not wait for evacuation orders.

Which I will do - in fact, I am doing all my laundry and re-packing my van even as I type (multi-tasking!!)

What with all of the hullabaloo, there has been very little mention of the still-damaged, and still-flowing concrete (well, concrete-and-dirt just now) primary spillway. There is something that looks like an access road, or access area to the right side of this spillway, when looking at the spillway from the bottom to the top. If one looks at the videos, and still photos (YouTube), it appears that the initial breach in the concrete, which occurred several days ago, happened more or less opposite this access area. If one looks at video and still photos from yesterday (after many days of 100,000 cfs water release down this spillway) and compares these photos and videos to those from several days ago. . . it appears that the spillway is not only eroding downstream from the break, but it is eroding upstream (towards the flood gates) as well. Note that in the original press releases regarding this damage, it was stated that "the breach is approximately 2/3 of the way down the spillway, near the bottom".

It appears that this might no longer be the case. The most current photos and videos seem to indicate that the breach continues to erode upstream (again, towards the flood gates) and now appears to be about 1/2 way down the spillway, instead of 2/3 down the spillway.

Are these indications accurate? I don't know. It is difficult to estimate the rate of uphill erosion from photos and videos taken from different angles.

Bottom line: if the erosion - of the concrete - reaches the spillway gates, or even near to the spillway gates. . . all bets are off.

Historically, March can be the wettest month in my area. There is - currently - a massive snowpack in the Sierra, much of which is drainage into the Oroville dam watershed. When a warm storm arrives, with rain on the snowpack (instead of more snow) the snowpack will begin to melt.

This can happen slowly, and it can also happen all at once. This was one of the main reasons for the massive flooding that happened in my area in 1997 (check YouTube for Marysville Flood 1997). Which, by the way, almost - I say, almost - also over-topped the emergency spillway at Oroville dam (there was about 12 inches remaining before the flow would have begun).

What happened in 1997 is that there was a large snowpack in the Sierra in the Oroville dam watershed. A massive sub-tropical (as opposed to arctic) WARM storm came through that was called, at the time, the "Pineapple Express" (one doesn't forget these things).

The entire snowpack melted within a few days, with a massive amount of snowmelt running down into Oroville dam.

Today is a warm storm, and it is currently pelting with rain at my house. Tomorrow's storm, and the storms for the rest of the week, are predicted to be colder.

I pray that it might be so.

Anne

Way too scary and uncertain!!! I'd be out of there and stay out! So sorry you are having to deal with this.

I was right on the beach at Brookings Harbor, Oregon RV park when they had an earthquake. I had just been down in Crescent City and read about the Tsunami that happened after an earthquake there. I went outside and no one was concerned, said they happened all the time and unless TV said evacuate don't worry. No sirens...went inside TV said go to higher ground now! I had no idea where higher ground was and did know one person, called her and she gave me directions to her place which was higher and I stayed until the all clear. I kept waking up all night and looking out to see what the water level was! So I know I would want to be OUT of there Anne!!!

Ann your post is covering so much that I have been feeling even though it's not what news is saying. Do what you think best and stay safe. You are in my thoughts. And remember I'm in Roseville in case you get diverted from your intended goal. I'm going to PM you with my phone. We have cats, so it would be a challenge, but we have a big house with a heated daylight basement which already has a bed set up, so we would figure it out. Our cats upstairs, your gang down if it came to that. We have had a fairly wet day with about .65 inches and winds to about 26 mph gusts. More to come. last I heard water behind dam was at least 25 ft down but I too noticed they keep saying regular main spillway damage 2/3 way down when it's pretty obvious that is no longer true, the damage is getting higher and wider. I pray we don't experience the worst case scenario and no one has to die to prove the state has been negligent in maintaining this dam and others. That emergency/auxiliary spillway was a disaster in itself. I understand part of their reasoning was to keep trees from hitting the lower dam on the diversion pond, but they sure created a bad situation. You know, I have lived a few miles from Folsom dam for over 30 years, and worked in Oroville during my Nurses training at the hospital and in Public Health, but I've learned more about dams in the past few weeks than I ever thought I would need to know! and my big takeaway is: California state government has been irresponsible and negligent when it comes to a lot of things but worse than pot holes in roads is putting the lives of millions at risk. Least anyone think Oroville is our only water problem, add to the list most of the smaller reservoirs in the foothills are nearing going over their spillways while all the major and minor rivers are at or above flood stage or will be very soon, and our levees are second only to New Orleans in danger of collapse. And as Anne said, March can be even wetter!
Velda

Velda!!

You are incredibly, incredibly kind and generous. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Actually, I am far luckier than most - I can return to the bay area, or there is a cabin in the Yuba County foothills that has been made available to me. But I will definitely keep your most kind offer in mind!

THANKYOUTHANKYOUTHANKYOU!!!

I spent the day doing laundry and cleaning out, and vacuuming, my van - then I have totally re-packed it, "just in case".

I'm thinking that I might head to the foothills for a few days (until the worst of the rain goes by). Haven't yet made up my mind - but I am leaning in that direction.

Thanks again, Velda. You are the BEST!!!

Anne

Very scary sounding. Thanks for keeping us up on the news. Take all prudent precautions.

The bottom line is your safety and that of your 4 footed kids, of course. We have had 3/4 inch rain and gusts to 25 mph, which sure doesn't help the valley levees. We are here if you need anything.
Velda

Avery scary indeed, My thoughts are with you.

So scary! Glad you are listening to your inner voice! And that you have options.

Pooker

So sorry you are caught up in this nightmare. Our local reservoir, Don Pedro, is also 'at spill'.
If we can just get through the next 36 hours. Think snow!

mtngal wrote:So sorry you are caught up in this nightmare. Our local reservoir, Don Pedro, is also 'at spill'.
If we can just get through the next 36 hours. Think snow!

Good morning. Thanks for your post.

I have been reading up on all of the reservoirs in Northern California, and all are nearing capacity - with another major storm - that is being referred to as an "atmospheric river" (I really don't like the sound of that. . .) due to arrive this evening - Sunday night, February 19. Don Pedro maybe is going to be in a world of hurt. Soonish. Shasta ain't looking too good, either (Shasta dam dumps into the Sacramento river).

Ladies:

There is also some new information on what - might - have caused the failure on the preliminary spillway (the one with the giant hole in the concrete):

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/17/oroville-dam-what-made-the-spillway-collapse/

Was this a known potential problem with concrete spillways, a known phenomenon? Well, yes, as a matter of fact, it was. (read the article at the link above - very interesting). Something similar has, apparently, occurred at several other concrete spillways around the country (i.e., sudden and unexpected erosion of the concrete spillway).

Is there a known "fix" to prevent this kind of known failure from happening on a concrete spillway? Well, yes, as a matter of fact there is. Was this known "fix" installed at the Oroville dam spillway to avert this known, and previously occurring phenomenon? Er. . . no, it was not.

Again, this information is regarding the primary, concrete, spillway at Oroville Dam.

Now on to the emergency/auxiliary (dirt) spillway:

Remember my comments earlier regarding erosion, using my example of the water out of your average garden hose easily eroding the dirt in your back yard when water is sprayed on said dirt at about 10 cfm (cubic feet per minute)?

And remember how water was coming over the "emergency/auxiliary" spillway at some 12,000 cfs (cubic feet per second)? And that they didn't think this flow (supposedly this spillway is designed to handle "up to" 450,000 cfs) would erode the obviously bare, loose dirt below this emergency/auxiliary spillway that any fool (me) could see was there (check out YouTube videos pre and post flow). This despite assurances by the manager of Oroville Dam that the hillside below the auxiliary/emergency spillway was {quote} "solid rock".

How could I have reached this conclusion from only an online video? Because of all the tracks in the loose dirt left behind by the heavy equipment used to denude the slope of vegetation!!!

REMEMBER YOU READ IT HERE, ON WOMENRV, FIRST!! Details at 11:00!!!

Gads.

Well, this morning's news is full of how badly the potential erosion rate of this emergency/auxiliary, all-dirt, all-the-time, spillway was miscalculated, which led to the almost-failure of the emergency/auxiliary spillway, which led to the evacuation of around 180,000 people.

Myself included.

Check out this story in the Los Angeles Times (there are many others along these lines this morning):

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-oroville-spillway-failure-20170216-story.html

I mean, this stuff is not rocket science. Erosion is a big topic in. . . grammer school. I am just a fat old lady watching the spillway erode via YouTube - again, remember that when I heard this flow might happen - it hadn't happened yet - is when I self-evacuated the first time.

It does not inspire confidence that officials did not see, from their ivory tower, what seemed pretty obvious to me, sitting here on my ratty old couch watching tv.

It was mentioned earlier that people are beginning to surmise that the "officials" are not telling "the public" the truth. I pretty much agreed with this assessment (more or less). Well, watching the events unfold over the last few days (with more "events" possibly, even likely, to come) I have changed my mind:

My current thought is that the "officials" don't know - precisely - what is going on. Or even what is to come.

Current thinking is that they may be just be making it all up as they go along.

Which is a whole lot worse.

Anne