Fire just north of Anne

[BarbaraRose]

Judy, from what I read, the power company had planned on turning off the power that morning in that area due to the high winds but at the last minute, changed their mind. The fire started not long afterward.
I would think with all the hills and canyons, etc, it would be difficult to bury the power lines there.

[Cudedog]

Hi Judy.

Thank you for your very thought-provoking post. Sorry it has taken a little while to get back to you, but I wanted to be sure of my facts before replying.

It's going to be a long one, folks. There are a lot of complex issues here.

So here goes. Everyone, please stay with me. Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Anne, I know that they have blamed PP&G for some of the fires. . .

First let me disclose that I don't own any PG&E stock, and don't have any interest in siding with PG&E in the current situation. At all. None.

Secondly, I will be using "you" in my response. Please understand that "you" is not directed at you, Judy, at all, but it is just easier to use this term in a longer post, like this one.

I do not intend any negativity towards you, personally, at all. NONE. I do apologize in advance if I somehow offend.

I am just using "you" in the collective sense: all of "you" out there reading this post.

Having said that, so far as I know (and I did a bit of research on this - just to be sure - but as of today, January 6, 2019) the cause of the Camp Fire is still under investigation. This can, of course, change - but as of today, this is how it currently stands: the exact cause of the fire, and the (perhaps) responsible party, is still unknown as the investigation continues.

At the present moment in time, so far as I can determine, the only people blaming PG&E for the fire are media folks (hoping you will tune in to the 11 o'clock news) and hungry attorneys. Do a Google search on "Camp Fire Attorney" and you will see what I mean ("PG&E May Have Caused the Camp Fire. We Can Help You File a Lawsuit") There are many pages of links posted by hungry attorneys to be found with a simple Google search using this query.

To fully blame PG&E for this incident, is to not take into account - at all - the, um, shall I say "weather change" that has taken place, and continues to take place, in not just California, but most of the western states: significantly shorter rainy season (see my previous posts on this thread), with significantly less rain, significantly longer summer with significantly higher temperatures. Call it what you will, a name for it doesn't matter. What really matters is that this change is real, and it IS happening.

With this weather change in mind, it might be helpful to remember the cause of the Carr fire, of earlier this summer (August, barely more than two months before the Camp Fire), which burned parts of the Redding, California, area. The Carr Fire was responsible for three fatalities.

This from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carr_Fire

"The Carr Fire was a large wildfire that burned in Shasta and Trinity Counties in California, United States. The fire burned 229,651 acres (92,936 ha; 359 sq mi), before it was 100% contained late on August 30, 2018. The Carr Fire destroyed at least 1,604 structures (at least 1,077 were homes) while damaging 277 others,[1] becoming the sixth-most destructive fire in California history. The fire was started when a flat tire on a vehicle caused the wheel's rim to scrape against the asphalt, creating sparks that set off the fire."

So far as I know, there are no plans to sue the owner of this vehicle for starting this fire.

Then there was another incident, in Dobbins, California, closer to where I used to live. I remember this fire well, it was close enough to me that had the winds changed, I would have been toast. Fortunately, they blew away from me and the fire only came to within about five miles of me.

Dobbins/Oregon House Fire Protection District
http://dohfd.com/Dobbins%20OH%20History2.html

"Yuba Fire August 14, 2009. This fire was started by a Red Tail Hawk flying into a powerline. The fire burned for 9 days eventually consuming 3,891 acres and two structures. Forty-one people were injured as a result of this fire and hundreds were forced to evacuate their homes or recreation areas."

The hawk was never considered to be a plaintiff in this fire. The hawk was dead.

The point I am trying to make here is that fires in the West, and in California specifically, can be started for any number of reasons, both known and unknown. Had they not found the toasted hawk below the power lines after the fire was over, the cause in this incident probably would never have been known.

The other point is that PG&E has deep pockets. When a possible deep pockets plaintiff is considered, the attorneys come out of the woodwork.

Hawks don't get sued. Hawks don't have any pockets at all.

but have they made any plans or instituted any changes to reduce the chances of fires being started by power company workers? (I know they are not running around starting fires purposely, but electricity does cause sparks.)

First, let me state unequivocally that I am not aware of any urban-interface wildfires that have ever been started accidentally by a "power company worker". None. Never. There is, of course, the possibility that one has been so started that I am not aware of. But I am not aware of even one.

Hrm. I have lived in California most of my life (since I was three years old). Nearly seven decades. During my lifetime I have watched urban-interface wildfires without number scorch my state. As I have stated in earlier posts on this thread, urban-interface wildfire is a fact of life in California. As are hurricanes in the south east United States. As are tornadoes in the midwest.

During recent years it is impossible not to notice that the number and severity of these wildfires seem to be increasing. There is persistent drought here in California, and in the west. I'll call it "changing weather patterns" for the time being.

Fires start here in our western wildlands for reasons both known and unknown. Arcing on high-tension wires can - and do - cause fires when no one is around.

Here are a few examples:

This is a high-tension power line. Notice the large sparks falling into the underbrush. I don't think this one is in California, but if in ultra-dry California, the ground under the line would have needed to have been scraped down to bare dirt to prevent a fire in dry underbrush.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTWc45JRQGs
It's not clear from this video what cause the arcing. It could have been high winds in the area, causing the extremely heavy electrical lines to sway, maybe coming just close enough to cause an arc. Some of the wind gusts in the Feather River Canyon on the day of the Camp Fire were in excess of fifty miles per hour.

Note the size of the sparks, raining down onto the ground.

Here's one where a tree is brushing against a power line. Imagine if this had happened in the dry Sierras:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvRWTGqQAoA

Here is another. Although it is difficult to tell, it appears that something very briefly flew across two lines, causing an arc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1wsAd9q_4w
Not too difficult to imagine, perhaps, a small tree branch hurled by 50 mph winds across two power lines in the Feather River canyon, causing those lines to arc.

Here's one of a couple of vandals intentionally causing a short in overhead power lines - and a fire below these lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4faw3xBgG4
If a major conflagration had been caused by this "bit of fun", the cause likely would never have been known. The evidence would all have been burned, and the perpetrators long gone. Probably still laughing.

Whether by errant car rims, hawks, arcing or intentional vandalism (or any number of other reasons): fires in California happen. And they have been happening for hundreds of years.

In Michigan where I am from, most residential power lines are buried underground, so I was surprised to see so many above ground in California and the west. Putting wires underground at least reduces lines being knocked down in storms.

Most, if not all, of electricity in Michigan is generated by coal, nuclear fission, and natural gas.
https://www.sciencemi.org/energy/alternating-currents-how-michigan-electricity-is-made/

Although the largest proportion of electric generation in California is by natural gas, a significant portion is also generated by water being run downhill through hydro-electric plants.

In order to run hydro plants, water must run downhill in order to turn the turbines that generate the electricity.

I'm speaking here specifically about the hydro-electric "Stairway of Power" in my area of Northern California that is based on the Feather River and it's tributaries. The Camp Fire started in the canyon carved by the Feather River.

Here is the long version:
https://www.wplives.com/frc/stairway_of_power.php

Here is a schematic of the "Stairway of Power"
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-of-the-Upper-North-Fork-Feather-River-Project-and-other-PG-E-projects-on-the_fig2_327253918
showing how the water source originates at the Mountain Meadows Reservoir (at about 5,000 feet above sea level) and runs downhill (the same water powering many different powerplants) as it flows all the way down to Lake Oroville (at about 900 feet above sea level - a four-thousand foot drop in elevation from the top of the "stairway" to the bottom).

"Pacific Gas and Electric Company operates in the famous scenic Feather River Canyon a descending "stairway" of powerhouses which utilize the water over and over for power before it flows on undiminished to other uses."

Here is a really cool graphical map that you can use your mouse to enlarge, which really brings into focus this "Stairway of Power".
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=99455176635b43138f40d66ca21ff87a

This is the short version:

First, take note of the fact that this hydro system is located in a fairly remote, fairly rugged area of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, from the upper elevations to the lower elevations.

Secondly, the Sierra Nevada is mostly composed of solid granite, with a few odd bits here and there of ancient volcanic rock.

There are mostly no roads into this area, except for Hwy 70, mostly a narrow, two-lane road that was carved into the side of the canyon for much of it's length. Steep cliffs down to the river on one side, steep cliffs up to the tops of the ridges on the other. Very few places to pull over and stop, very few places to turn around.

I know Hwy. 70, I have driven it in the Feather River Canyon more than once. It is not uncommon for transmission towers to be brought as close to a site as possible, with the remainder of the distance transversed by helicopter to the top of a ridge.

The only way power lines - and these are not "residential power lines", but are rather many-armed steel towers, maybe fifty feet high (or more), that are transporting mega-watts of electricity from the canyon power plants in the Sierra down to the valley.

It is thought, perhaps (and only perhaps - the investigation is not yet done) that a tiny insulating ring on one of these towers might have failed in the 50+ mph winds that were blowing through the canyon on that day.

I'm not an engineer, so I don't know what all would be involved in attempting the probably impossible task of burying these lines. Think steep-sided ridges of solid granite, these towers linked together along the top of these ridges.

A backhoe couldn't do it. A jackhammer might. But a jackhammer is not practical for burying mega-watt capacity power lines that extend for hundreds of miles.

Sorry this is so long. I welcome everyone's comments.

Thanks for reading all the way to the end. I know it must have been quite a slog.

Anne

[Cudedog]

I would think with all the hills and canyons, etc, it would be difficult to bury the power lines there.

I think your thinking would be 100% correct.

Personally, I think it would be impossible.

Thank you for your post.

Anne

[Bethers]

Another point on burying power lines is that it isn't recommended where flooding can happen. And when there is a problem it takes much longer to get power back on. At a much higher expense. There's always good and bad and it has to be weighed when they make these decisions.

[MandysMom]

Well written Anne.
Velda

[retiredhappy]

IF, and that's a big IF, PG&E caused the fire due to NEGLIGENCE by not trimming trees under their power lines, then that is why they should be sued. Wasn't it PG&E that was responsible for the poisoning of the water in some small town? I live in a very small county in Texas and the power company is ALWAYS trimming trees away from their lines because we have a lot of wind out here. I agree that a lot of fires are natural to a wooded area but if any fire is caused by negligence, then someone should be held responsible.

[SoCalGalcas]

Annie, That was a wonderful, interesting post. Thank you for taking the time to post it! I agree about the lawyers!!!! They are waiting with $ signs in their eyes!!! Lyn

[Cudedog]

IF, and that's a big IF, PG&E caused the fire due to NEGLIGENCE by not trimming trees under their power lines, then that is why they should be sued. Wasn't it PG&E that was responsible for the poisoning of the water in some small town? I live in a very small county in Texas and the power company is ALWAYS trimming trees away from their lines because we have a lot of wind out here. I agree that a lot of fires are natural to a wooded area but if any fire is caused by negligence, then someone should be held responsible.

Karen, thank you for your post. Thanks also to Barbie, Beth, Velda and Lyn for your current posts. Sorry if I missed anyone.

The precise cause of the fire, at the present time, is still under investigation. There is no indication, at least at the present time, that any trees that may have been located under the power lines were responsible for the fire.

Currently, items that I have read suggest that the cause of the fire - might - (again, the investigation is ongoing) be due to PG&E "equipment failure". Specifically, a small hook on one of the transmission towers failed, and "slight damage to a neighboring tower where an anchor that held down an insulator had become disconnected" in the near hurricane-force winds (50 to 65 mph) that blew through the Feather River Canyon for around nine (9) hours on that particular day.

These transmission towers are designed to withstand 50 mph winds. This is probably just 50 mph gusts, not constant wind velocities of 50 mph, but I don't know for sure. With the "change in weather patterns" that are occurring in the west in general, and in California in particular, not only are we receiving less (far less!) rain as in the past, but strong autumn winds (which are a natural, yearly, seasonal, occurrence here in Northern California) are becoming stronger (much stronger!), with both higher velocity, and continue to blow for longer duration, than in the past.

It is my understanding that these towers were originally designed to withstand up to 50 mph winds of, probably, short duration (wind gusts). The winds in the Feather River canyon that day were a more or less constant 50 mph over a nine-hour period. There were wind gusts of 65 mph measured at higher elevations near the Camp Fire.

Winds of 50 mph make it difficult to stand. A gale-force wind blows at 39 - 54 mph. A stage 1 hurricane blows at 74 mph.

Also there - might - (again, the investigation is ongoing, thus an exact cause of the fire is yet to be determined) be a second point of ignition, where a tree (the type of tree is not specified in the second link below, but the Feather River Canyon can have conifers many hundreds of feet tall) fell (due to the high winds) into a wooden power pole, causing the pole to collapse. Upon investigation, the pole was found to have previously been damaged by bullets: As stated by PG&E: “the pole and other equipment was on the ground with bullets and bullet holes at the break point of the pole and on the equipment.”

From the Los Angeles Times: Here's how Paradise ignored warnings and became a deathtrap [this article is a bit long, but well worth a read all the way to the end]
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-camp-fire-deathtrap-20181230-story.html

From the Chico Enterprise-Record newspaper: Camp Fire: PG&E notifies state regulators that key electrical tower had damage before the deadly blaze
https://www.chicoer.com/2018/12/13/camp-fire-pge-notifies-state-regulators-that-key-electrical-tower-had-damage-before-the-deadly-blaze/

Thank you.

Anne

[Cudedog]

January 9, 2018

CalFire Final Report:
"A total of 13,972 single, multiple, and mixed commercial residences, 528 commercial and 4,293 other buildings were destroyed. To date, 85 civilian fatalities have been recorded."
http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/pub/cdf/images/incidentfile2277_4330.pdf

Note: Nearly 60 percent of California’s forests are on land owned and managed by the federal government, mainly the National Forest Service and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.

Latest Camp Fire links, below.

The Camp Fire Is Creating California's Next Housing Crisis
https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-camp-fire-is-creating-californias-next-housing-cris-1830574502

Camp Fire FEMA Assistance Deadline extended "FEMA says they have received almost 26,000 applications from fire survivors"
https://www.actionnewsnow.com/content/news/Camp-Fire-FEMA-Assistance-Deadline-Extended--504104891.html

Up To 2,000 FEMA Trailers Planned For Camp Fire Victims
http://www.capradio.org/articles/2018/11/28/up-to-2000-fema-trailers-planned-for-camp-fire-victims/

Trump revives threats to withhold FEMA funds from California fire recovery
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/09/politics/trump-california-fire/index.html

[Cudedog]

This just in:

Camp Fire tops 2018 list of costliest disasters in the world
https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article224185765.html

There is also a 27-minute "mini-documentary" on the Camp Fire under this link.

Anne

[Cudedog]

PG&E, utility tied to wildfires, will file for bankruptcy
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/14/business/pge-bankruptcy-wildfires/index.html

From foundations to swimming pools, Camp Fire clean up explained to homeowners " For more than two hours, Eric Lamoureux talked concrete, dirt, walls, swimming pools, trees, forms, asphalt and how the state will work to return Paradise to what its name implies. At least the Paradise that is three to six inches down.". . . "Lamoureux estimated the per-property clean up will be about $80,000-$90,000 per unit" [times 14,000 + units - Anne]
https://www.chicoer.com/2019/01/13/from-concrete-to-antiques-camp-fire-clean-up-explained/

Camp Fire Clean-up Options
https://www.actionnewsnow.com/content/news/Camp-Fire-Clean-up-Options-504258451.html

State officials encourage Camp Fire survivors to opt in to government debris removal
https://krcrtv.com/news/camp-fire/state-officials-encourage-camp-fire-survivors-to-opt-in-to-government-debris-removal

[mtngal]

Wow Anne, you have done an amazing amount of research to help folks understand this extremely complicated situation.
And presented it very fairly. It’s been a rough ride for us in California; I’m guardedly hopeful we will learn from the horrific lessons of Paradise.

[Bethers]

The cost of removal of the debris per lot is scary... More than is believable almost. At least there is no cost to the homeowners... Except the next phase of compacting the ground, etc.

Thanks, Anne for continuing to share all this information.

[Cudedog]

Wow Anne, you have done an amazing amount of research to help folks understand this extremely complicated situation.

And presented it very fairly.

Thank you, Diana. Your comments are very much appreciated. Urban-interface wildfire in California is a very complex issue. As I have time, I plan to write more on this issue.

In the short term, I plan to continue to post links to the ongoing tragedy of the Camp Fire.

Thanks, Anne for continuing to share all this information.

Thank you, Beth, for your encouragement to continue this discussion. Your comments are very much appreciated.

Anne

Latest Camp Fire links, January 18, 2019:

"Smoke filled the air as flames approached. But worried 911 callers were told of ‘no threat to Paradise.’"
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-911-calls-As-flames-raced-in-13541139.php

"Camp Fire: No place to call home due to regional housing shortage"
https://www.theunion.com/news/camp-fire-no-place-to-call-home-due-to-regional-housing-shortage/

"Red Cross and Butte County officials said Thursday they will close the area’s final evacuation center at the end of this month, potentially displacing more than 600 residents living at the Silver Dollar Fair Ground in Chico."
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article224717220.html

"Displaced Camp Fire family relocates to Newark from Paradise, California" [Anne: It is becoming clear that many families will not be returning to Paradise]
https://www.newarkadvocate.com/story/news/local/2019/01/17/displaced-camp-fire-family-relocates-newark-california/2566473002/

[Cudedog]

My computer crapped out, so until it is repaired, sometime next week I hope, will need to keep updates short.

Displaced by Camp Fire, they’ve been through
‘hell.’ As last shelter closes, where will they go?

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/local/homeless/article225194350.html